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BCS Formula Places Oklahoma Over Texas (Updated)

November 29th, 2008 · 39 Comments

ATTENTION: People who cast votes in the polls that count toward college football’s BCS rankings.  A new formula suggests the Oklahoma Sooners squad is the clear-cut winner in the Big 12 South.

Now that a three-way tie exists between the Oklahoma Sooners, Texas Longhorns and Texas Tech Red Raiders, I have a suggestion for resolving the issue of which team should receive your votes in the final week of the season and, in turn, decide the Big 12 Conference South champion.

Rather than go with the formula endorsed by the Longhorns that omits the Red Raiders as a result of the Lubbock squad’s 65-21 loss to Oklahoma, BCS voters should go with a points-based formula to decide a winner — that is, they should add up each team’s total of points scored and points allowed against each of the other two first-place teams.  When you do that, you find some pretty lopsided numbers as shown below:

  • Texas Tech scored a total of 60 points against the Sooners (21) and Longhorns (39) while allowing 98 points — 65 and 33, respectively — to net minus 38 points;
  • Texas scored a total of 78 points against the Sooners (45) and Red Raiders (33) while allowing 74 points — 35 and 39, respectively — to net 4 points; and
  • Oklahoma scored a total of 110 points against the Longhorns (35) and Red Raiders (65) while allowing 66 points — 45 and 21, respectively — to net 44 points.

Hard to counter, isn’t it?  BOOMER SOONER!

* * *

UPDATE 11/30/08 5:13 p.m. CDT: Oklahoma Sooners Ascend to #2 in BCS Standings!

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39 responses so far ↓

  • 1 MLonghorn // Nov 30, 2008 at 9:42 am

    Easiest argument to counter that I’ve heard yet, actually.

    I think it’s hysterical how the Sooners dig for the only statistic that helps them and it’s one of the least important.

    In your argument if you beat 9 opponents by 70 points each and then lose 3 games by 1, you’ve got a “net points” victory of 627. Big number. You also have 3 losses.

    Big deal that the Sooners kept their starters in and wracked up a bunch of points at the end of games when it didn’t matter.

    They lost a game by 10. Tech lost a game by 40-something. Texas lost a last-second game by 6 on the final play. Does that mean the Longhorns should be the winner? Of course not. Point differential shouldn’t be the decider.

    You want a stat that MEANS something?

    All of these teams have the same record throughout their season.

    The Texas opponents winning percentage is .590.

    The OU opponents winning percentage is .556.

    Texas played better opponents and sits here now with the same record.

    Not to mention that the Longhorns were the only team who didn’t get to play a home game in this 3-way tiebreaker scenario.

    Texas played Tech on the road and lost at the buzzer and beat OU easily on a neutral field.

    The Sooners got to play their two toughest games on a home field and neutral site.

    You’re right… it’s pretty simple.

    Texas is the best choice.

  • 2 hotoffthepress2 // Nov 30, 2008 at 12:30 pm

    MLonghorn — I hope you know that stuff you’re smokin’ is illegal in the Lone Star State. Plus, those rose-colored glasses you’re wearing look goofy with a cowboy hat!

  • 3 hotoffthepress2 // Nov 30, 2008 at 12:39 pm

    Looks like the USA Today poll out today has it right — Alabama #1, Oklahoma #2 and Texas #3 — while the sportswriters (AP) appear to be smoking more of the stuff MLonghorn is. AP has Florida ahead of both Texas (#3) and Oklahoma (#4). As “Colonel Potter” on M.A.S.H. used to say, “Horsehockey!”

  • 4 bringplayoffs // Nov 30, 2008 at 1:13 pm

    when you try to get objective on this, the “hard to counter” argument is a bit thin. MLonghorn is biased, but made one clear point. OU played home and neutral sites, Tech played home and away, and Texas played neutral and away. Points can’t be compared there.

    And OU does play it’s starters longer than Texas. Against A&M on Thursday, the offensive starters were out the whole 4th quarter. Last night against OSU, OU was up 13 with 30 secs to go, and their starters RAN THE BALL for a TD instead of taking a knee. Differing philosophies on style points makes style points an unfair comparison.

    Every other year we hear the pundits making two statements regarding ties: 1) “Which team would win on a neutral site?” and 2) “How is the hotter team right now?” This year we are only hearing the latter because the former already happened. Seems like Texas and OU both get the nod on one of the two questions we always hear asked.

    One of these two teams will get shafted, and pray they serve as the sacrificial lamb to end the BCS and create a Plus 1 or Playoff system…

  • 5 bringplayoffs // Nov 30, 2008 at 1:14 pm

    moderator…change that “how” to “who” in the second to last paragraph…sorry.

  • 6 theTexan // Nov 30, 2008 at 2:15 pm

    Texas beat OU and that’s all that counts. Tech just barely got the W. and last time I checked OU forgot to show up at the last title game. Anyone remember Jan. 4, 2005? :-)

  • 7 hotoffthepress2 // Nov 30, 2008 at 2:16 pm

    You sound scared, Tex.

  • 8 Kurt // Nov 30, 2008 at 2:51 pm

    Just be glad we dont have a playoff system, otherwise we wouldn’t get to talk about it! (no playoff!) Its also better financially for the whole system, not just the dynasty schools.

    Right now the BCS’s biggest problem is that recent games count more than past ones. If Texas had lost this week instead of earlier, or plaid the OU game this week instead of earlier, the decision would be clear.

    Voters apparently have very short memories. How can the BCS system make early games count as much as the late season.

    I like the opponents winning percentage argument made by MLonghorn. Fact is though, there’s only two conferences this year (Big12, and SEC). We should be glad the Natnl Championship is between them, and that all the USC drones (especially on ESPN) didn’t vote them to the top.

    Since we’re all declaring our non-neutrality. . . Austin beats the hell out of Norman any day (with and without football season).

  • 9 awesome // Nov 30, 2008 at 4:33 pm

    45-35?????

  • 10 OU52 // Nov 30, 2008 at 5:13 pm

    Apparently you guys have no idea what you are talking about! Do you know why the computers like OU versus TX? It is called strength of schedule! Clearly TX would have won in the computers had they played somebody in their non-conference games. Quit crying and face the reality, TX didn’t go to the Big 12 Championship due to playing the weaker schedule. The computers are non-biased.

  • 11 hotoffthepress2 // Nov 30, 2008 at 5:17 pm

    OU52 — You make a lot of sense, and my update to this post confirms it!

  • 12 OU fan // Nov 30, 2008 at 5:57 pm

    - strength of schedule is easier when playing at home face it the only way ou deserves to go is if they can beat ut oops it didnt happen texas is a class act we dont have to run up the scores to get respect thats why we let up on ou and let ou feel good about only loosing by ten points

  • 13 hotoffthepress2 // Nov 30, 2008 at 6:00 pm

    OU fan? Say what you will, but the voters and computers have decided. Sooners are Kansas City-bound; Longhorns are not.

  • 14 OU fan // Nov 30, 2008 at 6:05 pm

    dont need to go to kansas we will relax and go to the bcs bowl game when ou looses to mizz

  • 15 hotoffthepress2 // Nov 30, 2008 at 6:22 pm

    OU fan — A sense of humor must come in handy in Texas these days. Like they always do, OU will finish M-I-Z-Z-O-U easily on Saturday.

  • 16 theTexan // Nov 30, 2008 at 6:41 pm

    but will OU even show up if they get to the national title… didn’t last time. oops

  • 17 OU fan // Nov 30, 2008 at 6:45 pm

    humor is the spice of life like watching ou play

  • 18 hotoffthepress2 // Nov 30, 2008 at 7:06 pm

    theTexan — That happens every so often, especially when you get to the title game as often as OU does.

  • 19 hotoffthepress2 // Nov 30, 2008 at 7:08 pm

    OU fan — Accept your defeat like a man (or woman, whatever the case may be). You lost. Better luck next year.

  • 20 theTexan // Nov 30, 2008 at 7:13 pm

    sure, that makes a hell of a lot of sense. we get to the title game and just decide not to play. kind of like you did not play against UT. probably won’t show up for Big 12 anyway.

  • 21 theTexan // Nov 30, 2008 at 7:14 pm

    hotoffthepress2 – just be glad that there is no playoff. UT will beat OU anyday of the week.

  • 22 hotoffthepress2 // Nov 30, 2008 at 7:17 pm

    What are you, Tex — a teenager with a lot of time on his hands? See ya next year.

  • 23 theTexan // Nov 30, 2008 at 7:17 pm

    sure

  • 24 12543 // Dec 1, 2008 at 11:47 am

    You want to know why OU leap-frogged TX? Well, first off, OU did indeed play a tougher schedule, regardless of what the TX fans might believe. OU played 6 ranked opponents, while TX played only 5 ranked opponents. Also, playing in Dallas can hardly be considered a “neutral” field. I’ve been to that game 4 times, and trust me, there’s very few OU fans living in the metroplex area. But, I think the main reason it happened was because TX showed a total lack of class by flying a banner over the OU-OSU game trying to remind BCS voters of the TX win. Not to mention Mack Brown calling in during the game to whine about why his team should be ranked higher. That is, without a doubt, the most classless show of poor sportsmanship I’ve ever seen.

  • 25 hotoffthepress2 // Dec 1, 2008 at 11:53 am

    Good points all, 12543!

  • 26 12543 // Dec 1, 2008 at 12:17 pm

    Just a little bit more of the true stats for you guys:

    Overall record: OU – 11-1 TX – 11-1 Edge = Tie
    Offensive points scored: OU – 650 TX – 533 Edge = OU
    Defensive points allowed: OU – 288 TX – 217 Edge – TX
    Margin of victory: OU – 342 TX – 303 Edge – OU
    Ranked opponents played: OU – 6 TX – 5 Edge – OU
    Record against common opponents: OU – 4-0 TX – 3-1 Edge – OU
    Margin of victory against common opponents: OU – 116 TX – 78 Edge – OU
    1st place rankings in Big 12: OU – 2 (Kickoff returns & Pass efficiency) TX – 1 (Rushing defense) Edge – OU
    2nd Place rankings in Big 12: OU – 6 TX – 0 Edge – OU
    1st place rankings Nationally: OU – 2 (Kickoff returns & Pass efficiency) TX – 0 Edge – OU

    That’s 8-1-1 in favor of OU by my estimation……

  • 27 theTexan // Dec 2, 2008 at 10:06 pm

    and yet Tex still whipped OU. that’s 1-o for the year and still trumps your stats.

    Edge – Tex

  • 28 hotoffthepress2 // Dec 2, 2008 at 10:08 pm

    You can keep dishin’ Tex, but you’re doing it from the sidelines this year. Accept your fate. The nod went to Oklahoma. BOOMER SOONER

  • 29 theTexan // Dec 2, 2008 at 10:16 pm

    12543, ‘total lack of class by ….’, ‘the most classless show of poor sportsmanship I’ve ever seen….’

    How about running up the score on your opponent just to inflate your status in the BCS??? I’m glad that Coach Brown has the class that OU does not and did not run up the score on A&M. It really sucks that teams feel the need to do something like that. I think your second stat proves the point.

  • 30 hotoffthepress2 // Dec 2, 2008 at 10:19 pm

    Tex — Grow up and accept your fate man. You’re wasting valuable space with your whining. Someone throw him a crying towel!

  • 31 12543 // Dec 3, 2008 at 12:21 pm

    Here’s a few more relevant stats for you:

    Offensive yards per game:
    OU – 556.67 TX – 476.42 Edge = OU

    Defensive yards allowed per game:
    OU – 359.5 TX – 339.92 Edge = TX

    Average yards per game:
    OU – 556.7 TX – 476.4 Edge = OU

    Total rushing yards:
    OU – 2429 TX – 2123 Edge = OU

    Total passing yards:
    OU – 4251 TX – 3594 Edge = OU

    Turnover margin:
    OU – 1.67 (ranked 2nd in the nation) TX – .25 (ranked 45th in the nation) Edge = OU

    Sacks allowed:
    OU – .92 per game TX – 1.83 per game Edge = OU

    Number of home games played (home field advantage):
    OU – 6 TX – 7 Edge = OU

    2nd Place rankings nationally:
    OU – 2 (Turnover Margin & Passing Efficiency) TX – 1 (Rushing Defense) Edge = OU

    QB Stats:
    Bradford – 68.2% Completions (268/393) McCoy – 77.6% Completions (291/375) Edge = TX
    Bradford – 6 Interceptions McCoy – 7 Interceptions Edge = OU
    Bradford – 4080 Total yards McCoy – 3445 Total yards Edge = OU
    Bradford – 46 Touchdown passes McCoy – 32 Touchdown passes Edge = OU
    Bradford – QB rating: 190.97 McCoy – QB rating: 179.2 Edge = OU
    Bradford – Sacked 9 times McCoy – Sacked 20 times Edge = OU
    Bradford – Average yards per pass: 10.4 McCoy – Average yards per pass: 9.2 Edge = OU

    These type of stats are what the BCS computer is looking at (and the voters too obviously) and OU is clearly dominant in most of them. When balanced against the Texas win, the overwhelming stats in OU’s favor are enough to push them ahead of Texas. Sorry.

  • 32 hotoffthepress2 // Dec 3, 2008 at 12:23 pm

    Good points again, 12543!

  • 33 12543 // Dec 3, 2008 at 12:24 pm

    Oh, and in regards to your “running up the score” comment, I’ve seen most of the OU games this season and while I haven’t looked at the exact stats, I’m certain that a huge majority of the points scored by OU were in the first half. I’ve seen them pull back big time in the second halves and start to put in the scrubs. Feel free to look up the exact numbers on this and let us know if you disagree.

  • 34 12543 // Dec 3, 2008 at 12:54 pm

    Never mind, I looked up the 2nd half scoring data for you:

    OU total points in 1st half: 418
    (34.83 per game average)

    OU total points in 2nd half: 222
    (18.5 per game average)

    OU total points in 4th quarter: 72
    (6 per game average)

    Games where OU scored 0 points in 4th quarter: 4

    Now, let’s look at Texas to see if THEY just might be running up the score:

    TX total points in 1st half: 277
    (23.08 per game average)

    TX total points in 2nd half: 250
    (20.83 per game average)

    TX total points in 4th quarter: 115
    (9.58 per game average)

    Games where TX scored 0 points in 4th quarter: 2

    The stats speak for themselves my friend…..

  • 35 Leslie // Dec 6, 2008 at 10:18 am

    Thank you!!! I am so tired of people saying how much more the Longhorns deserve it. OU and Texas played 2 months ago!!!! Since that time, Texas lost to Texas Tech by a touchdown, when a mere field goal would have done it. Then everyone was in awe at how incredible Texas Tech was, and then OU SLAUGHTERED them!!! The only reason Texas Tech is not in this discussion (in which case Texas Tech would go to the Big 12 Championship game based on the “head to head” argument, b/c they beat Texas) is because of he huge whipping that OU gave them! Actually Texas has to thank OU for this; OU the team that gave Texas a chance to even be in this argument.

    Long before the BCS came into existence, teams that lost early in the season have come back to the head of the pack, even win the national championship, over and over! (Just look at LSU last year). This is not because of the BCS, this is because the polls have ALWAYS forgiven an early loss. Texas’ loss was just too late in the year to come back.

    Sorry guys, but even if the BCS did not exist, it would still be Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game.

  • 36 OUgatorbait // Dec 26, 2008 at 5:37 pm

    OU will find out what a good team looks like on jan 8th…they have not seen the likes of a team like florida…defense or offense…texas would have been a better challenge for us…either way florida could line up against all three and beat them up and down…I would like to see since all you big 12 beleivers know where you conference stacks up…the bottom…anyway it will be a good blowout coming up..cant wait

  • 37 hotoffthepress2 // Dec 26, 2008 at 5:40 pm

    Hey, bait breath, it’s obvious you lack originality. I mean, hey, your screen name gives that away. If the Florida Lizards played anything close to a tough schedule, I might say you’re right. Since they haven’t played anyone stronger than a Southeast Conference JUCO equivalent (no, Alabama doesn’t count), I say you’re wrong. Enjoy your fantasizing while it lasts!

  • 38 thetexan // Jan 10, 2009 at 2:30 pm

    Well, in the end… Texas still beat OU in the game and the final polls. So, here’s another National Championship that OU blew. Imagine that, who could have predicted that, oh that’s right, I did.

  • 39 hotoffthepress2 // Jan 10, 2009 at 5:05 pm

    Ouch! That hurt!

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